Moores Law

Moore's Law is the observation by [Gordon E. Moore]? (one of the co-founders of Intel, not to be confused with the philosopher G. E. Moore) that, at our rate of technological development and advances in the semiconductor industry, the number of transistors on integrated circuits (a rough measure of computer processing power) doubles every 18 months - 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 ... - we should expect that in 10 years computers will be about 100 times more powerful than they are today.

Another consequence of Moore's law is that RAM storage capacity increases at the same rate as processing power. However, memory speeds have not increased as fast as CPU speeds in recent years, leading to a heavy reliance on caching? in current computer systems.

Moore first outlined the "law" in 1965 and the rate has remained highly-consistent until now. Recent computer industry technology 'roadmaps' predict (as of 2001) that Moore's law will continue for at least another 10 years, offering another 100-fold improvement in computer speed.

Since this would put 100 GHz personal computers in every home, and 20 GHz devices in every pocket, some commentators have speculated that sooner or later computers will meet or exceed any concievable need for computation. However, similar predictions in the past of a limited appetite for computer power have been consistently frustrated.

Extrapolation based on Moore's Law has led futurists? such as Vernor Vinge and Bruce Sterling to speculate about a technological Singularity.

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