[Home]Falsifiability

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Falsifiability is an essential concept in the [philosophy of science]?. To convey the concept roughly, we can say that for an assertion to be falsifiable, it must be in principle possible to make an observation or do a physical experiment? that would show the assertion to be false. For example, the assertion "All crows are black" could be falsified by observing a red crow.

The basic concept of falsifiability is simple, but, like all basic concepts in philosophy, its precise definition has been a matter of considerable disagreement. In particular, there has been great disagreement among the [logical empiricists]? and philosophers of science who learned from them about when to consider a statement falsified. W. V. Quine is well-known for his observation in his influential essay, "[Two Dogmas of Empiricism]?" (which is reprinted in From a Logical Point of View), that nearly any statement can be made to fit with the data, so long as one makes the requisite "compensatory adjustments." Hence, in the above example, one could say, for example, that it was in fact not a crow at all but some other kind of bird that was observed, or that the observer was mistaken that the color of the crow was in fact red (perhaps it was only painted red), etc.

In the [philosophy of science]?, verificationism? (also known as [the verifiability theory of meaning]?) held that a statement must be in principle empirically verifiable in order to be meaningful. This was an essential feature of the [logical empiricism]? of the so-called [Vienna Circle]? that featured and essentially influenced such philosophers as [Moritz Schlick]?, [Rudolph Carnap]?, [Otto Neutrath]?, [Hans Reichenbach]?, Ludwig Wittgenstein, A. J. Ayer, and Karl Popper. Later, the leading theory of meaningfulness posited not verifiability but falsifiability as the criterion of meaningfulness (also known as [cognitive significance]?). In other words, in order to be meaningful at least in a strict sense, it had to be in principle possible (but it has been a vexed question how "in principle possible" should be cashed out) that we might produce some data that would show (or perhaps only tend to show) the proposition to be false.

Falsifiability has also been importantly connected not only with meaningfulness but also with scientific method: Karl Popper, for example, stressed that falsifiability is critical to the scientific method. If a hypothesis offered in explanation of some empirical phenomenon cannot be falsified, then the hypothesis is "unscientific" and should not be tested (all results will be, necessarily, positive, which proves nothing).

Claims about verifiability and falsifiability have been used to criticize various controversial views. On the view of some, for example A. J. Ayer, theism is not falsifiable; since God is typically alleged to be a transcendental being, beyond the realm of the observable, claims about the existence of God can neither be supported nor undermined by observation. This is, of course, a matter of controversy for anyone who places stock in natural theology--the [argument from design]? and other [a posterior]? arguments for the existence of God.

Examples of falsifiable theories:

Any theory based upon a non-falsifiable premise is itself non-falsifiable. For example, a physical theory that posits multiple parallel universes with which we cannot interact is necessarily non-flasifiable. If the premise is changed to allow some theoretical mechanism by which we can see or change something in those universes, then it might theoretically become testable.

It should be noted that while the criterion of falsifiability is a foundation of modern science, many scientists and educators are lax in its application to their beliefs in general. For example, many scientists hold and express strong opinions about the existence of God or the non-existence of God, even though such beliefs are not falsifiable and thus not scientific. Likewise, scientists may often speculate or extend analogies to offer explanations for things that are not yet easily testable, and thus not falsifiable. For example, some theories like evolutionary psychology are offered as explanations for human behavior even though we presently lack the technology to rigorously test what causes human behavior. These theories are only falsifiable and "scientific" to the degree that they predict some future means of being able to test them, or that individual facts predicted by the theory might be testable on their own.

There are also degrees of falsifiability, and scientific hypotheses are considered superior if they are more falsifiable than competing ones. For example, a hypothesis for which there are many presently available tests (such as most physical laws) is superior to one that may only be testable in the future with some new technology (such as some psychological theories), and those are in turn superior to hypotheses that can never be tested because they are fundamentally untestable by their very nature (such as the existence or non-existence of God).


See also Occams razor

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Edited December 6, 2001 8:10 am by Larry Sanger (diff)
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