The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has implemented the Dvorak technique as the most important analysis technique for tropical cyclones of the Western Pacific Ocean, the Southern Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean since 1987. On April 1, JTWC is to announce that a new analysis technique is being tested, entirely different from the Dvorak technique.
“The analysis technique is revolutionary as it is based on how beautiful a tropical cyclone is; in addition, we redefine the future of TC analysis,” said JTWC Satellite Analyst SSgt. Cheyenne Lembke. “As a woman who is confident about her own beauty, I feel privileged to introduce this technique regarding to the nature beauty.”
The technique, labeled as LEMBKE (Light Estimating Method Based on Kinetic Evolution), is currently under development, although some of the unique features have been determined. Like the Dvorak technique, LEMBKE is still based on the evolution of a tropical cyclone on satellite imageries, but LEMBKE focuses on the shape of a tropical cyclone. For instance, the golden ratio, a common phenomenon in the nature, is applied to the relationship of a tropical cyclone’s eye and convective ring. The smoothness of the cloud tops, the overall shape of outer bands, the roundness of the eyewall as well as the cyclone itself, etc., are also the backbone of LEMBKE.
“We will not end the Dvorak technique. It will remain a technique used by JTWC, but LEMBKE will dominate over the half of processes regarding to analyzing the intensity of a tropical cyclone. We believe that LEMBKE is the more economical method among various analysis techniques in the future,” said JTWC Satellite Analyst Tech Sgt. Matthew Drew.