Revising opinions in statistics

Researchers who use personal probability can proceed as follows:

1. A statistical model for the data generating process is assumed. The model might specify that the data follows a normal distribution with an unknown mean.
2. The researcher describes his opinion about the unknown mean as having a normal distribution centered at 10 with a standard deviation of 2. This would be called the researcher's prior distribution for the mean.
3. With the [likelihood function]? of the observed data and the probabilistic description of his opinion, the researcher can calculate (using [Bayes' Theorem]?) the appropriate opinion consistent with both sources of information. This is called the posterior distribution.

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